Rams and Browns beware History says drafting QBs early is a crapshoot

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Back in February, coach Jeff Fisher said would return . A month later, general manager Les Snead said .It was hard to take them seriously, because: 1) we're talking about Case Morgan Cox Jersey Keenum, 2) last offseason Fisher declared that would be the starter (Bradford was traded to Philly before the season), and more importantly, 3) this week, Fisher and Snead traded the farm to the to move up from No. 15 to No. 1 in this month's draft.And while the Rams reportedly haven't settled on who they'll take with the pick, it will undoubtedly be a quarterback. Partly because teams don't give up two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders without having some idea why they're doing with it. But mostly because teams without a franchise quarterback rarely make the playoffs, and when they do don't get out of the first round.Our first reaction after ? "Man, the Rams got ."But here's the deal: Fisher and Snead haven't exactly set the world on fire. Since 2012, the Rams are 27-36-1, haven't made the playoffs, and never won more than seven games in a season. Quarterbacks on those teams have included Bradford, , , , and Keenum. All swell guys, we're sure, but they're not leading the Rams to the postseason anytime soon. Given that, and the reality that it's reasonable to think Fisher and Snead will be looking for work should the Rams flop again in 2016, staking everything on the No. 1 pick is a risk worth taking."Yeah, but imagine what they could do with all those picks they traded away!" you might scream.You don't have to imagine it. On paper, the Rams were the beneficiaries of a similar trade four years ago when the moved up to No. 2 to take . Since this will again be a big storyline this week, here's a full breakdown of "the trade." Casey Pearce (@ccpearce) Funny story: Since 2012, the Justin Bethel Jersey Redskins have twice been to the playoffs after winning their division. They did it with RG3 in 2012 and with (a fourth-round pick in 2012) last season. .But Fisher hopes to change all that in the coming weeks and months. And while we don't have an i sue with the trade from the Rams' perspective -- despite its one-sided appearance -- reality and history says that quarterbacks selected first overall are a notoriously fickle bunch that span the gamut from first-ballot Hall of Famers to replacement-level talents to full-fledged flameouts.(Same holds for quarterbacks who go No. 2. We mention this because the pick second, and despite signing Griffin to a two-year deal last month, they are very much in the market for a franchise quarterback. The list of previous candidates .There have been reports that the Browns would be willing to trade down to accumulate more picks, and with teams like the 49ers and Eagles also in the market for a quarterback, it's not out of the question.) Whomever the Rams (and, po sibly, the Browns) end up taking won't be some magic elixir to a problem that has plagued the organization since Marc Bugler was throwing touchdown pa ses to Torry Holt.For every Peyton Manning, Terry Bradshaw and John Elway -- first-overall picks with multiple Super Bowl titles and 421 wins among them -- there are also the David Carrs, JaMarcus Ru sells and Tim Couches of the NFL world. In fairne s, Carr, Ru sell and Couch came into near-untenable situations, though some of that, particularly when talking about Ru sell's attitude about hard work, was Iman Marshall Jersey self-inflicted.OK, to the numbers ... Performances of QBs drafted in the top twoYearPickQuarterbackGSRecordWin %Career AV19981Peyton Manning265186-79-070.2%17719701Terry Bradshaw HOF158107-51-067.7%10619831John Elway HOF231148-82-164.3%13820121Andrew Luck5535-20-063.6%4519992Donovan McNabb16198-62-161.3%10720111Cam Newton7845-32-158.4%7619891Troy Aikman HOF16594-71-057.0%9720051Alex Smith12168-52-156.7%7220011Michael Vick11561-51-154.5%9320041Eli Manning18397-86-053.0%10420031Carson Palmer15983-76-052.2%10019931Drew Bledsoe19398-95-050.8%10319711Jim Plunkett14472-72-050.0%8519732Bert Jones9647-49-049.0%8119751Steve Bartkowski12759-68-046.5%7020091Matthew Stafford9342-51-045.2%6419871Vinny Testaverde21490-123-142.3%9720101Sam Bradford6325-37-140.3%3320122Robert Griffin3514-21-040.0%3220151Jameis Winston166-10-037.5%1319991Tim Couch5922-37-037.3%3019901Jeff George12446-78-037.1%6519932Rick Mirer6824-44-035.3%3220021David Carr7923-56-029.1%4420071JaMarcus Ru sell257-18-028.0%619712Archie Manning13935-101-325.7%7520152Marcus Mariota123-9-025.0%919982Ryan Leaf214-17-019.0%1Totals1,639-1,548-1051.4%Source: Pro Football ReferenceSince 1970, the average winning percentage of quarterbacks taken either No. 1 or No. 2 is .514. Remove Peyton Manning and it drops to .496. But wins aren't the best measure of quarterback succe s -- there are also things like Pro-Football-Reference.com's , and more conventional stats like completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD-to-INT ratios. So let's take a look at those too.Career Approximate Value leaders (per game) 1. 2. Robert Griffin III 3. 4. Jameis Winson5. Bert JonesAnd the bottom five: David Carr, Vinny Testaverde, Rick Mirer, JaMarcus Ru sell, Ryan Leaf.Completion percentage leaders 1. Peyton Manning 2. Robert Griffin III 3. 4. 5. Troy Aikman And the bottom five: Rick Mirer, Jim Plunkett, JaMarcus Ru sell, Terry Bradshaw, Ryan Leaf.Yards per attempt leaders 1. Peyton Manning 2. Robert Griffin III 3. Marcus Mariota 4. Jameis Winson5. Cam NewtonAnd the bottom five: Sam Bradford, David Carr, JaMarcus Ru sell, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf. TD-to-INT leaders 1. Peyton Manning 2 Maurice Canady Jersey . Donovan McNabb 3. Marcus Mariota 4. Andrew Luck5. Cam NewtonAnd the bottom five: Jim Plunkett, JaMarcus Ru sell, Archie Manning, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf.(You can see all the data , courtesy of the always excellent Pro-Football-Reference.com) A few things stick out: Peyton Manning was very, very, good. This is no surprise. What is, however, is that RG3's name popped up several times, and perhaps that portends good things in Cleveland, especially if new coach Hue Jackson can get Griffin back on track. (That said, we fully expect the Browns to take a quarterback.)Also: It's hard to quantify just how bad Ru sell and Ryan Leaf were, two names that continue to battle for the label of "biggest draft bust ever."Of course, the Rams know the uncertainty that comes with the first-overall pick. They lived it back in 2010, when they drafted Bradford, whose history of injuries followed him to the NFL. In four seasons in St. Louis, Bradford mi sed 15 games and only once (in an injury-shortened '13 season) had a pa ser rating of at least 90.0. But we'll repeat what we said above: What Anthony Averett Jersey do the Rams have to lose? They've been mediocre since Fisher arrived, and there's no reason to think they wouldn't have been mediocre -- or worse -- again in 2016.If they can land their guy -- whether it's Carson Wentz or Jared Goff or some mystery candidate -- and manage him in much the same way guys like , , and even early in his career were brought along, there's reason to believe the Rams could be a legit playoff contender. With a stifling defense, and a running game that features , this is a great situation for a promising young quarterback to get on-the-job training.Whether he'll be the next Andrew Luck, JaMarcus Ru sell, or somewhere in between ( ? ?) will have to be a discu sion for another time.