Week 15 NFL bets Gamblers are giving up on the Cowboys plus parlays line moves and more tips

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After entering their last two games as favorites but losing each in convincing fashion, bettors have had enough of the . Dallas fell behind 26-7 in their Thanksgiving matchup with Buffalo before tacking on a TD with about four minutes left. The next week, Dallas found themselves behind 31-14 in Chicago with about five minutes left before scoring 10 points in garbage time.The sluggish performance over the last few weeks has swung the line for this week's matchup with the . Despite Corey Brewer Jersey playing at home and having the benefit of extra rest after playing the Chicago game on a Thursday, the line as of Tuesday evening is Rams -1.Yes, the Rams looked like they were back in form in their Sunday night win over the , but is that win enough to swing the line four points? The lookahead line on the matchup was Cowboys -3.5, and William Hill opened the game at Cowboys -3 prior to kickoff of Seahawks-Rams. By Monday afternoon, the line had come all the way down to a pick 'em, and by the same time Tuesday, the Rams were favored.Not only have we seen major line movement, but the public has made a clear statement on what they think about the Cowboys. The Rams are getting 91% of the bets as of Tuesday evening, per Sports Insights, as bettors line up to fade a struggling Dallas team. What does this all mean? Considering Vegas sportsbooks have yet to go bankrupt, maybe we should pump the brakes on the demise of the Cowboys. If everybody agrees on one side of the game, they tend to be wrong more often than they're right.Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . My picks Over at SportsLine, I'll be . Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. Big line moves (lookaheads) Rams -1 at Cowboys (was DAL -3.5) at -9 Jabari Parker Jersey .5 (was KC -13) at -6.5 (was OAK -4) at -4.5 (was GB -7) at -2.5 (was PK) -4.5 at (was PHI -6.5) Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. Last week, fading the big moves went 1-4, and we went over our first game at the top.The Broncos trounced a playoff-caliber team in the , and the market has taken notice, dropping that line more than a field goal. Part of that could also be attributed to not being 100% after playing through an injury in the win over the .The Raiders are playing their last home game ever(?) in Oakland, and with the Jaguars looking completely checked out, that line has ballooned up to the Raiders being favored by a touchdown in some places. Oakland's Swi s cheese defense presumably leaves the back door open for a Jaguars cover, but they'll have to play a full 60 minutes to even have that chance. The Packers offense looked stuck in neutral in a win over the Redskins on Sunday, and with the Bears coming off a big win over the Cowboys, the line has dropped considerably for this matchup. The Packers have traditionally been tough to beat in Lambeau in December and January when is healthy.The Steelers picked up a relatively easy win in Arizona, and even though the Bills are getting most of the action from the public, the line has steamed toward the home team. In the battle between these two defensive stalwarts, the total is an absurdly low 36.5 points, so don't expect a ton of scoring no matter who wins.The Eagles continued to underperform while dealing with multiple injuries to key offensive players in their overtime win over the , and with the Redskins continuing to play teams close, the line for Philadelphia-Washington is coming down. However, Washington has one of the worst home-field advantages in the league, so don't look at a line of Eagles - Cory Joseph Jersey 4.5 and take it to mean the market thinks the Eagles are 7.5 points better. Where DVOA disagrees with line Eagles -4.5 at RedskinsTexans at -3Rams -1 at CowboysPart of my research each week is calculating the DVOA as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. For this section, I employ the weighted DVOA statistic, which puts more emphasis on more recent games.Speaking of Washington's home field advantage, the low number I have a signed there makes the Eagles a bargain on the current line, but DVOA isn't accounting for all the injuries they're battling for this matchup. So take the metric's projection of Eagles -7 with a grain of salt. The Titans have been on fire, winning six of seven since took over. With the Texans coming off a blowout home lo s to the Broncos, DVOA gives Tenne see a major edge in this game that doesn't track with a betting line that considers the teams basically even. Per the metric, the line should be more like Titans -8.DVOA hasn't made as extreme an adjustment to the Cowboys and Rams as the market and still considers Dallas the better team by 6.6 points. The metric would project a line close to the lookahead number at Cowboys -4, giving us two matchups (along with Texans-Titans) with an extreme DVOA disagreement with the line. Fading the public Rams -1 at CowboysSeahawks -6 at -2.5 at Patriots -9.5 at Jaguars at Raiders -6.5 If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night. The public is all Trevor Ariza Jersey over several favorites this week. We mentioned at the top the Rams were getting 91% of the tickets for their matchup, and the Seahawks come close to that extreme with 89% of the action. The Vikings and Patriots round out the four-pack of super public road favorites, with 87% and 84% of the tickets, respectively. We cap things off with the Raiders, who are getting 81% of the tickets for presumably their last Oakland home game ever.In addition to those games, the Bills started the week above our 80% cutoff but had dipped just below by Tuesday night. The Broncos and are also getting more than 70% of the tickets. Underdog parlay of the week Redskins +175 vs. EaglesDolphins +155 at GiantsWe're fading the two Monday night teams this week and chasing a +600 payout. Washington could take advantage of Philadelphia's injury i sues and the po sibility they're looking ahead to the major Cowboys showdown in Week 16. The Giants have now lost nine straight games, yet find themselves as favorites of a field goal or higher for a matchup with the Dolphins. I don't know who will win, but in a battle of two awful teams, there's typically value on the underdog. Teaser Mike Bibby Jersey of the week Redskins +10.5 vs. EaglesBills +8.5 at SteelersA much healthier Eagles team beat the Redskins at home by five points to start the year, and with Washington playing well in recent weeks, I think we can count on them not to get blown out. The Steelers have won seven of their last eight games, but only one of those was by a margin of more than seven points. Their offense is unlikely to score enough to ruin our teaser here. The teaser of the week is just 6-8 this year after a 12-5 run in 2018, with the Texans proving to be a terrible play to pair with the .
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