2016 NFL season overunder win total picks for NFC Easy to get behind loaded Cards

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Back in May, following the 2016 NFL Draft, we took a look at some of the over-under lines around the NFL, trying to figure out what teams would fall short of their projected Las Vegas win total and what teams would improve on the number given to them by our friends in the desert. NFL preseason For whatever reason, when we've done this in the past few years, we haven't revisited it as the season gets closer. With preseason action set to start on Thursday night (there are six games slated, ), it makes sense to take another look and imagine how these teams will shake out. The numbers for each team haven't changed dramatically, but the price (in parentheses) probably has -- if a team has a (-130) you need to bet $130 to win $100. Conversely, if a team has a (+110), if you bet $100 you would win $110. The price is almost as important as the number when it comes to the NFL, where a few games swing based on the random luck of fumbles. , and now we get down to the NFC. There are two "Best Bets" noted for each conference as well. 10 Over (-140) / Under (+120)May Win Total: 9.5 So much for a lack of respect for the . Arizona's seen their win total creep up half a game over the past three months, with the price not getting any cheaper. It almost feels like this is the "all or nothing" tax -- after watching Arizona's franchise operate on Amazon's hit TV series, it's easy to get behind the idea they'll be good in 2016. isn't recovering from a torn ACL this year and the offense is loaded with playmakers. Defensively they've improved the pa s rush, the only thing that's really been holding them back. Have a feeling I'm not the only one who likes the Cardinals this year, which is a scary thought for everyone involved (bandwagons are usually bad in the NFL).Previously: Over VERDICT: OVER 7.5 Over (+140) / Under (-160) May Win Total: 7.5 E sentially the same price for the and why not? This team is what we think it is (R.I.P., Denny Green): they have a great defensive line, a great running game, a dangerous secondary capable of giving up big plays, no real help at wide receiver in a traditional sense and a major question mark at the quarterback position. Moving to Los Angeles, appearing on and drafting doesn't change that. We just don't know how good or how bad the rookie can be. Preseason will help a little with that but the Rams are still a team expected to float around .500, primarily because Carmelo Anthony Jersey of their division.Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 5.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)May Win Total: 5.5 Nothing much has changed here, either. We don't know if or will be the starter for the and given Chip Kelly's history in selecting quarterbacks, we probably shouldn't expect to know until right up until the season begins. Still love and think his preseason play drives his hype way up before the season starts. This is still a team without a lot of talent, in a really tough division with a tough schedule. If anyone other than the Chipster was coaching, the under would feel like a really easy pick. Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 10.5 Over (-130) / Under (+110)May Win Total: 10.5 Seattle's remained pretty constant at the current price, which is certainly not cheap if you think the will be good this year. That 10.5 is a big number with a high price: taking the under is probably the prudent investment, but betting against Seattle is just silly. There are red flags, of course, especially with the running game. The offensive line is basically new, there's no more and no one is entirely sure how healthy is (Pete Carroll thinks he's in great shape but he runs SO hard it's scary). The defense is going to be dominant and the schedule is great: Seattle starting out 3-2 would be a ma sive disappointment. A perfect 5-0 against the Cardinals is not unreasonable at all. If and find the same groove they had for a four-game stretch last season, they'll blow 11 wins out of the water.Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER 7.0 Over (-145) / Under (+125)May Win Total: 7.5 It's wild what a difference in half a game means for the price here -- it's expensive if you think the will be a .500 team or better. should be better during his second season with Kyle Shanahan's offense and is being unnece sarily discounted after a slow second half. is a destroyer of worlds. Dan Quinn will make this defense better in his second season, especially with an offseason to add more parts. Their schedule is BRUTAL though. Four of their first six games on the road, three of the first six are division games and three of their first six games are against playoff teams from last year ( , , Seahawks, gulp). Two wins before hosting the and in Weeks 6 and 7, respectively, would be good.Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 10.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)May Win Total: 10.5 My initial lean for the Panthers has been the under, because the team's win total is highly over-priced. And 10.5 wins is a lot for anyone -- it's tied for most in the NFL. Matchups against the NFC West don't really help matters, but I think ultimately the Panthers win total is won or lost in the first six weeks of the season. Three games specifically Markus Howard Jersey : opening night in Denver, Week 3 at home against the and Week 6 at the . It's easy to say the Panthers are better than all three teams. They are! But they're not guaranteed to crush those teams. If they can manage 4-2 in those games then 11 looks like a reasonable number of wins, a suming no really bad luck. If they go 3-3 to open the season, it could very well end up being a 10-win year for Carolina, which wouldn't be all that bad. is a top-five NFL quarterback and I expect a big follow up to his MVP year, with improved statistics for that offense thanks to the return of and the maturation of . The secondary is still a wild card but it will be better than people think. The win total didn't budge after left and it feels like, once again, people are selling the Panthers short. It's a recurring mistake I'm deciding not to make this year. Previously: UnderVERDICT: OVER 7.0 Over (-135) / Under (+115)May Win Total: 7.0 The price has gone up substantially for the Saints over (it was even in May), which indicates a little bit more Monte Morris Jersey belief in what they've got cooking in New Orleans. The idea of and Sean Payton always lingers as a positive and both guys should be motivated to improve on the last two seasons. There's no such as a "guaranteed win" in the NFL, but you and there aren't many easy wins, because of how their schedule lines up. Look at their six games after the bye: they play the Panthers (home), (road), Seahawks (home), 49ers (road), (road) and Panthers (road, short week). That's a murderer's row -- if the Saints get out to a slow start they're going to struggle. They'll score points and be competitive, but if the defense doesn't take a step it's hard to imagine them in playoff contention again.Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 7.0 Over (-125) / Under (+105)May Win Total: 7.5 Surprising to see Vegas cool on the Bucs, who were a hot "sneaky playoff team" last year. As I wrote in May, everything hinges on the defense -- if they can produce an above-average unit after Lovie Smith was canned and sent back to the college game. There is ample talent on that side of the ball, starting with and . With , , and along with a developing offensive line, is a strong candidate for a breakout sophomore season. People are sleeping on Tampa and they're a solid pick for a strong season.Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER 7.5 Over (+120) / Under (-140)May Win Total: 7.5 Same total but a vastly different price (over was -120 in May) for the . Still like them as a sleeper team NO ONE is talking about, particularly with the succe s John Fox has had turning around teams quickly. Both the Panthers and Broncos took big steps in his second season, with Carolina winning 11 games and Denver winning 13 games in the second year after he took over. Adam Gase leaving for the gig is the only thing that's scary, because of the regre sion factor. The schedule is friendly, with games against the , , , , and to open. Any of those teams can beat the Bears, but they don't face a true NFC powerhouse until the in Week 7. The back half of the schedule is friendly too: Bucs, , , 49ers, and are all featured. Starting to love the Bears, especially with the bonus price tag. Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER Detroit Lions 7.0 Over (-120) / Under (Even)May Win Total: 7.0 There is plenty of optimism around the Lions (I think?) but I'm not entirely sure why. looked great down the stretch in Jim Bob Cooter's offense, but and are far le s intimidating without on the field. could be a game-changing back, or he could be injured and fumble a lot. The offensive line better be good, with three first-round picks on it, in addition to and . Ziggy Ansah and are the two big faces of a defense that doesn't really have an identity.Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER Green Bay Packers 10.5 Over (-150) / Under (+130)May Win Total: 10.5 It's gotten a little cheaper to take the over on the Packers, but that's a pretty prohibitive price tag when you're talking about a Jerami Grant Jersey team with question marks. Is in shape and ready to dominant in the ground game? Is healthy? If the answers to those are "no" then it's a total leap of faith on . Not a terrible player to leap on, but 11 wins is a lot. A Week 4 bye doesn't help matters, although if you're going to get hit with three-straight road games, you could do worse than Titans/Redskins/Eagles in terms of making some hay where you're not supposed to. They get the Seahawks at home, which is a big advantage for a tough game as well. I'll take the leap but wouldn't want to put as much coin as needed for the price. Rodgers is too good in Lambeau to bet against him not winning four road games.Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER 9.5 Over (-130) / Under (+110)May Win Total: 9.5 Not entirely sure why I didn't like the Vikings in May. Maybe it was buying on the Bears and the Packers previously? Ten games is asking a lot, but they're not getting much respect (even from me!) for having won the NFC North last year. The open with the but Packers/Panthers/Giants/Texans before a Week 6 buy isn't a cakewalk. The thing is, all has to become is with a better deep ball and this team is going to be steady as all get out. The defense is primed to take a step into the elite category, because it's loaded with young talent, and can still carry the offensive load. Reversing course here. Previously: UnderVERDICT: OVER 9.0 Over (-110) / Under (-110)May Win Total: 9.5 Full half a game shaved off the Cowboys win total in a few months, which is telling when it comes to their offseason. Everything about their offense screams "bounce back" -- if and are healthy and plays a full season, they will be a dominant unit. But then you look at the defense. With suspensions to , and , this is a team without playmakers on that side of the ball. Who's rushing the pa ser? They can't magically stop everyone with their offense. Still like the over because I don't trust the division, but my goodne s there are more concerns than there were before.Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER 8.0 Over (-130) / Under (+110)May Win Total: 8.0 I keep coming back to the idea that if another team in this division -- any other team, actually -- had made the moves the Giants made, we would be making fun of them for being the "offseason champs" Tyler Lydon Jersey and spending all of the free agency money when everyone knows that's not how you win in the NFL. But because the Giants get the benefit of the doubt, people are looking for a playoff run. We don't know how Ben McAdoo will function as a head coach, but we do know Tom Coughlin elevated a terrible team last year. Only thing that's scary is a ma sive year from .Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 7.0 Over (+120) / Under (-140)May Win Total: 7.5 People are hammering the Eagles under apparently, because it dropped a full half a win since May and is basically the same price. And that's after agreed to play the full season! There is a lot to like on the defensive end of things, including the underrated . The Eagles did the smart thing by shipping out bad contracts and signing quality players drafted by the club. But this quarterback thing weighs heavy, man. What if Bradford gets hurt (not unheard of)? Then and are going to take you to the playoffs? Or even eight wins? I don't think so. Previously: UnderVERDICT: UNDER 7.0 Over (-150) / Under (+130)May Win Total: 7.5 Clearly Vegas is not buying into . How else can you explain the Redskins being the only playoff team from 2015 without a win total above eight? Seven wins is a slap in the face to a franchise that's actually been fairly patient and smart, which flies against everything you normally expect from the Redskins. Regre sion for the quarterback is coming, and the running back situation is a concern ( / / are not guarantees for a feature back). The defense is better than you think and GM Scot McCloughan is building this roster the right way. Even if you think Washington will mi s the playoffs and will struggle with really tough match ups, the over is the play.Previously: OverVERDICT: OVER
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